Ontario Election - Liberals will win

It is now all but certain that the Liberals will be re-elected with a majority. With twelve days left it would take an entirely unexpected development to change this.

A poll out today from Environics gives them a five point lead, but one just out from Ipsos shows a greater margin with the Tories trailing by ten points.

In addition, Environics reports that opposition to the religious schools promise has grown since they last polled on the issue, including significant growth among those strongly opposed. The same is true for the new Ipsos poll.

The other interesting part of the Environics poll is a survey on the referendum, which makes it clear that not only will the proposed new MMP system not receive the 60% needed for approval, it will not reach 50%.