Monday, June 04, 2007

Summer Doldrums

The most recent Ipsos poll is headlined "Parties mired in political doldrums: poll". You might think there isn't any good news there for anyone. Indeed the poll's national numbers show the Conservatives at 34% and the Liberals a few points behind at 31% - no majority there for anyone - but a closer look at the regional numbers suggests that it would produce quite good seat numbers for the Liberals.

Here are two tables: the poll's regional numbers followed by the seat distribution it produces using my forecast model:



There is no election in sight and all such polls deserve to be taken with a grain of salt, in particular the Green numbers, but the Conservatives' renewed efforts to attack St├ęphane Dion start to make sense.

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