Monday, October 02, 2006

Liberal leadership the day after ... bloggers win

I find myself generally in agreement with most pundits who see Michael Ignatieff as likely the next leader of the Liberals. He emerged from the weekend with 30% of the elected delegates, but he already has a greater share of support among the party's ex-officio delegates such as MPs. His opposition is divided three ways and his most formidable potential opponent, St├ęphane Dion, may finish fourth. Kennedy's weakness in Quebec and Rae's in Ontario doom their candidacies. There is anti-Ignatieff sentiment to be sure, and the campaigning between now and December will matter, but Michael Ignatieff is now in a very strong position.

And it was the blogger estimates that were the most accurate. The results are not all in, but the total error for Democratic Space so far is 14.6%, for Calgary Grit 17.1%. As for the pollsters, Strategic Counsel's error is 23.1%, and Ekos 23.9%.

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