A new poll in Manitoba puts the PCs in first place for the first time in many years, 43% to 38% for the NDP. However, the NDP have a structural advantage in Manitoba, and my seat forecaster suggests that, even trailing by 5%, the NDP would wind up one seat ahead. When I parse the results closely, I see two ridings that I would guess would actually flip to the Conservatives were an election really being held today.
It appears to be the standard accumulation of small grievances that afflicts the government. The NDP has never won a third term in Manitoba, but Gary Doer is one of Canada's most talented politicians, and new Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen is still an unknown commodity. We don't know yet what the heat of battle will produce.