Monday, May 15, 2006

Nova Scotia Election

A provincial election has been called in Nova Scotia for June 13. Nova Scotia Tories selected Rodney Macdonald (a politico who can really sing and dance) as their new Premier in February and now are seeking to cash in on his perceived popularity. A poll conducted just after the leadership convention reported results indicating the party has a good chance of winning a majority.

Indeed if the Corporate Research Associates poll is applied to my seat forecaster it gives the following:

PC – 31

NDP – 14

L – 7

However, the spread in the poll was actually somewhat close:

PC – 36%

NDP – 29%

L – 27%

It would not take much movement to turn the majority into another minority in Nova Scotia, which has elected a couple of minority legislatures during the past decade.

The party that on the face of it looks like it should be worried is the Liberals. The new Premier, who seems to be popular personally, comes from the Liberal stronghold of Cape Breton. It is my impression is that the new Liberal leader, Francis Mackenzie, is less attractive than Danny Graham, the man he replaced (and who had to resign due to an illness in the family).

There may therefore be an opportunity for the NDP. Assuming the NDP doesn’t win, if the Liberals were to wind up a distant third it could position the NDP, which continues to do well in Halifax but has only spotty support elsewhere, to be the logical alternative to the PC government The PCs will be vulnerable next time as they would then be seeking a fourth term (assuming they win in June).

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