Tuesday, April 19, 2005

June Election

A June (or July) election now seems inevitable. Psychologically, with Liberals seemingly on the ropes, the opposition Tories and Bloc can't resist the temptation.

There have been numerous polls since the release of the Brault testimony at the Gomery inquiry. What to make of them?

Most have had sample sizes in the 1000/1200 range meaning the regional sub-samples are subject to large errors. I have aggregated and averaged them, and then done a seat calculation. I have noticed wide variance within the polls, especially regionally, and the averaging is about the only way of making sense of it.

Once averaged, the poll numbers are: Liberal - 28, Conservative - 34, NDP - 19, Bloc 13, Green 4 and Other 2. The produces the following seat distribution:

Liberal 79
Conservative 122
NDP 40
Bloc 66
Other 1

At the moment we seem headed for a weak Conservative minority. However, if these numbers held, the Conservatives would only have to cut a deal with one other party to achieve a majority on any matter before the House.

With the Liberal parliamantary moves to postpone a confidence vote, no doubt there will more numbers to crunch in the days to come.

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