Friday, March 18, 2005

On the Left Coast

The new Ipsos-Reid poll out today gives the B.C. Liberals 46% to 39% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens. This would produce a lopsided 51-28 win for the governing party. This confirms recent trends and is no surprise given the province's improving economy and fiscal position (which let them have an election style budget last month). There is still evidence in the polls that Gordon Campbell is not a much beloved personality (he has only a 42% approval rating), so I think there is still the possibility that the election will have some interesting sparks. But it seems to me the ultimate outcome is not in much doubt.

The most interesting bit of news this week was that ex-CBC chair Carole Taylor will run for the Liberals. Norman Spector says "Carole Taylor's entry into provincial politics changes the dynamic of the election campaign. It will narrow the gender gap and strengthen Campbell's "Liberal" credentials..." Taylor gives me the initial impression of someone who may have excellent political skills, and therefor may eventually make a significant impact. However, as a new candidate I don't think she will make much difference to this campaign. And the gender gap is driven by issues not personalities, including the fact that the NDP is led by Carole James.

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