Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Vote on the Conservative Throne Speech Amendment

The compromise resolution has been adopted. Both the Bloc and the Conservatives forced the government to swallow versions of their original amendments, making it clear that they are willing to cooperate to force the government to bend to their will to a certain extent.

The key implication of this is that if the Liberals want an early election, and I think they do, it will likely be easy to engineer a defeat in the House. The Liberals and the Conservatives have conventions scheduled for next March, probably shortly after the budget. After that there could be a spring election.

The fact that the Liberals are being pushed around by the other parties will give them a powerful incentive to go to the polls. The recent public opinion surveys, for example, this one released yesterday by Environics, don't give them enough seats for a majority but they are getting close to one.

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