Tuesday, January 13, 2004

Seat Forecast based on Environics Poll

It has been radio silence over the past week. However, I have now recalibrated my forecast model to reflect the fact that we now have one party on the right and not two. I calculated a seat outcome based on the recent poll released by Environics.

The result reflects the Martin honeymoon that is still at its peak. The hypothetical seat outcome is Liberals - 221, the new Conservative Party of Canada (which I intend to refer to as the C.P.C.) - 38, NDP - 13, and the Bloc - 29.

I don't think the Liberals will hang on to these numbers for a number of reasons I will explore in future posts. This result should perhaps be remembered as the starting point for this election year.

No comments: