Ads for Bill Richardson

These biographic ads for Bill Richardson are both brilliant and funny (don't miss the second one). His rise in the polls is clearly linked to the communications.

The Democrats have an abundance of strong candidates; the Republicans by contrast are struggling and many are now putting their hopes on Law and Order actor Fred Thompson.

Update: I like these low budget Young Liberal ads as well, made in response to Conservative ads that attack Dion on, of all issues, senate reform.

Manitoba election - long term implications

The election produced (as expected by the end of the campaign) another majority for the NDP. It was nonetheless a remarkable outcome. Not only was it an unprecedented third majority for Gary Doer and the NDP, it was only the second time in modern Manitoba political history that it had happened, the other being Duff Roblin's three majorities of 1959, 1962 and 1966.

The modern era of Manitoba politics dates from 1958 when the Liberal-Progressive coalition that had ruled in one form or another since 1922 was defeated by Duff Roblin. The Roblin Progressive Conservatives formed a minority government he transformed into a majority a year later. The PCs initiated a new party system in Manitoba in which the Progressive Conservatives were dominant while the opposition was fairly evenly split between the Liberals and the CCF-NDP - it continued for the next decade. Following the NDP's first victory in 1969 a new party system was initiated that could best be described as a competitive two party system with the NDP and the PCs alternating in government, the governing party generally holding only a small majority of seats in the Manitoba legislature, with the Liberals as a third party trailing distantly behind the other two in votes and seats. The Carstairs Liberal uprising, which emerged suddenly in 1988 and had all but disappeared by 1995, caused this system to waver temporarily, but the return of the NDP to power in 1999 seemed firmly to re-establish the post-1969 party system.

However, one other unprecedented aspect of the 2007 election is that it witnessed not just the third majority for the NDP, but the second time in a row that their majority of seats had increased. And for the second election in a row NDP support has become relatively more concentrated in the City of Winnipeg. The NDP had a higher percentage of votes overall in 2003 but they increased their share of the vote in the City of Winnipeg in 2007 (from 52 to 53%) and this gave them two additional seats there (and almost a third). The only constituency they lost was in Brandon.

These numbers can be seen in Winnipeg's electoral map, which is now completely NDP orange in the city except for three ridings in the southwest corner (and one in the northeast). Combined with the absolute NDP dominance in the northern ridings, where NDP strength has grown steadily stronger over time, the NDP's control of much of the city suggests we may be seeing a new party system emerge. This analysis is still speculative, but it is possible that this new party system will be one where there is a single party (the NDP) that would dominate the political scene most of the time, while the opposition PCs would only able to take power occasionally, and subsequently would not able to hang on to the reigns of power for longer than a term or perhaps two.

We do have other party systems in Canada where one party has been generally stronger than the others for a prolonged period - in Alberta since 1971 the Conservatives have been completely dominant federally and provincially, while in Ontario the Liberal Party has tended to dominate the federal scene since 1963, and the CCF-NDP has held power for 47 of the past 63 years in Saskatchewan.

The NDP in Manitoba has been in office more often than not since 1969 but generally by a small margin until 2003. This does look very much like a new party system in Manitoba - one where the NDP completely controls such a large share of the seats in Winnipeg and the North that it becomes extremely difficult for the Conservatives to find a way to win office. In a year where it seems certain the NDP will lose office in Saskatchewan it appears the centre of electoral gravity for the party is going to edge a little to the east.

Seat by Seat Predictions in Manitoba

TC's forecaster delivers a global overview of the Manitoba election. However, there are always individual contests in ridings that can override the general trend. Although the seat forecaster doesn't predict these outcomes, I would not be completely surprised if the PCs pick up La Verendrye and Brandon West, both traditional PC strongholds prior to the Gary Doer era. While the NDP is reportedly pressing the PCs in a couple of Winnipeg seats it is difficult to imagine them overcoming the historic trend and doing even better than in 2003.

There are interesting seat-by-seat predictions on two Manitoba blogs from observers closer to the scene: Endless Spin Cycle and Praire Topiary. I offer no critique but they make interesting reading.

PEI Poll Suggests Opposition Win Coming

A poll out today in Prince Edward Island suggests it may be the end of line for Pat Binns:

Prince Edward Island can expect a massive sea change that will end a decade of Tory rule and put Robert Ghiz in the Premier’s Office, pollsters for The Guardian say.
A poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates exclusively for this newspaper puts the Liberal party at 49 per cent, seven percentage points ahead of the governing Progressive Conservatives.

The PCs have the support of 42 per cent of decided and leaning voters.

It isn't easy to win multiple provincial elections. TC thinks we will see a repeat of this in Saskatchewan when the time comes.

New Angus Reid Poll in Manitoba

There is another new poll out today on the Manitoba election, this one is an online survey. It is by Angus Reid Strategies, which is making an effort to do random sample polling on the internet. It reports that the NDP would replicate its showing of 2003:

...49 per cent of decided voters would support the NDP in the ballot to renew the Manitoba Legislative Assembly.

The Progressive Conservatives are second with 37 per cent, followed by the Liberal Party with nine per cent, and the Green Party with five per cent.

It will be quite interesting to see how accurate this survey is compared with the Probe Research poll, which uses a more traditional methodology. Either way it remains clear that Gary Doer is headed for victory.

Probe Poll - Manitoba Election Forecast

The poll out today has results, which when converted to seats using my forecast model, come close to replicating the results of the last election:
The numbers above represent the province-wide overall numbers produced by the pollsters. Probe also produced regional data including Winnipeg/Non-Winnipeg splits. I have created a separate model based on two regions (Winnipeg & Rural/North) - when I do the calculation using this independently generated model (the principles of the methodology are the same), it exactly replicates the outcome of the June 10, 2003 election.

This should not be surprising: the Winnipeg results in the Probe poll are almost exactly the same as the Winnipeg vote shares in 2003. Although the rural numbers in the poll report a significant shift from 2003, the fact is that most rural contests like most in the city are completely one-sided affairs, whether the constituency is voting NDP or Conservative. It takes a larger shift than reported by Probe research to change the outcome in rural areas according to my estimate.

Even in the City of Winnipeg the same pattern for the most part holds. To the extent there are marginals they are mostly urban but there are not many. Another feature of the pattern emerging from the 2003 election is that wide movements in the poll yield surprisingly limited seat shifts.

Nevertheless I don't really expect a truly identical result to emerge. There are typically a few idiosyncratic results that don't follow the overall pattern. For example, I would not be surprised to see former Tory MP Rick Borotsik win in Brandon West, although he would have to overcome an enormous margin to do so.

The poll does have a margin of error. However, if we take two points away from the NDP and give them to the Conservatives we still would move only one additional seat the Tories way. I have more confidence in the overall numbers than the regional - because they are sub-samples the margin of error is much higher.

Since 1969 Manitoba has been split along a northwest to southeast axis - in general, to the north and east, the NDP dominates while the Conservatives hold sway to the south and west. The Liberals have generally managed only to capture the odd seat in the city (with the notable exception of the 1988 election). This familiar pattern should still be highly visible on election night.

Manitoba Party Preference Poll - NDP Will Win

The party preference numbers are out now and they are clear: this election will go to the NDP. TC will have more later.