U.S. debt crisis - the real blame belongs with the establishment "centrists"

There are two critical aspects to the U.S. debt crisis. One is that the confrontation is real and may not be resolved quickly, although the pressure to do so will grow exponentially from here on out. The real blame for all this lies with the deficit-phobic Washington centrists. The best explanation for how we got here is outlined in this blogpost by Jon Chait of The New Republic fittingly titled: The Debt Ceiling Crisis And The Failure Of The Establishment, which, as Chait puts it, underestimated " the loony determination of the Republican right".

The other tragic aspect is that the whole debate is wrong-headed and focused on the wrong problems, the debt and deficit, instead of the right ones, short and long-term unemployment and badly skewed income distribution. A not unreasonable discussion of these can be found in this column by former Obama and Clinton advisor Laura D'Andrea Tyson on the jobs deficit.

How soon we forget

"Majority backs Harper’s plan for Senate elections and term limits, poll finds" says the headline on the Globe story.  Great news for Harper and company, right?

However, this Nanos poll from just a month ago tells us that Senate reform is the public's lowest priority, right at the bottom a list topped by health care, about the same level as strengthening the military, traditionally something that doesn't garner much support.

When it comes to polls, context and wording is everything, something you don't see much in the daily press.

Manitoba NDP has a realistic chance to win

With the notable exceptions of Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, few provincial governments keep the same partisan colour beyond two terms in government.  The Manitoba NDP has now made it through three terms, so it should be due to lose the next election. Polls over the past couple of years have been pointing in that direction. However, the NDP has continued to lead in the City of Winnipeg in most surveys to date, including polls that give a substantial overall lead to the PCs (this March poll from Probe for example). TC has been convinced for some time that a change in government was coming. Now I am not so sure.

An Angus Reid online poll released on June 7 that measured premier popularity put Greg Selinger's approval rating at 48%, second highest in Canada behind just Saskatchewan's Brad Wall and a gain of 20 points since the previous survey in November 2010. Perhaps this is due to his handling of the flood situation.

A Probe Research poll released on June 29 reported an overall dead heat between the NDP and the PCs at 44% with the Liberals a quite distant third at 9%. This represented a 9 point boost for the NDP.  More importantly it would easily give the NDP a fourth majority despite the overall closeness in the vote.

TC estimates it would deliver 34 seats to the NDP, 21 to the PCs and 2 to the Liberals. The key to this is the historically efficient vote pattern the NDP has achieved since it first won office in 1969.  Simply put, the NDP's margins in the city are smaller than the huge margins run up by the PCs in rural southwestern and southeastern Manitoba - more seats for exactly the same share of the vote. The final factor is that the NDP has had a virtual lock on the small northern ridings since its initial breakthrough 42 years ago.

Using the Probe poll numbers TC can estimate a vote share for every riding. With exactly the same overall vote, the NDP wins its ridings by an average margin of 25.4%, while the PC wins their seats by an average of 36.9%. Therein lies the difference. In the March 2011 Probe poll the PCs had an overall lead of 47% to 35% but still trailed the NDP by six points in the City of Winnipeg. It would have yielded a bare majority for the PCs. But you can see their problem.

The election could still go the other way, but the NDP's structural advantages and Selinger's growing popularity may well give it an unprecedented fourth term.